Dan Walters: Democrats set to boost state Senate clout

When Republican Assemblyman Cameron Smyth decided to leave the Legislature rather than run for the state Senate this year, it virtually guaranteed that Democrats will achieve a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate, changing the Capitol's political dynamics.

Having already won – via a 2010 ballot measure – the right to pass budgets by simple majority votes, Democrats would gain more power in the Senate over other issues, such as taxes.

That would, in turn, isolate Republicans in the Assembly, who are likely to retain more than a third of the lower house's 80 seats this year, and could even gain one or two. They could still block tax increases, constitutional amendments and other measures requiring two-thirds votes.

The die was cast for a Democratic supermajority in the Senate when the state's new independent redistricting commission redrew its 40 districts.

Quickly grasping that the new maps could lead to losses of two or more of their 15 Senate seats, Republicans challenged them in court and via a referendum that would ask voters to overturn them.

Names are still being counted on referendum petitions, but the state Supreme Court declared that whether the proposition appears on the November ballot or not, the new maps will be used in the 20 odd-numbered Senate districts this year.

Democrats were locked in to win 12 of the 20 and already hold 14 even-numbered districts, giving them 26 and needing just one more to reach the two-thirds mark of 27 seats.

Three of the odd-numbered districts were rated as tossups, and Democrats needed to win just one.

Republicans had viable candidates in two of the three, so the attention of both parties centered on the 27th Senate District in suburban Los Angeles.

Initially, it appeared that two senators, Democrat Fran Pavley and Republican Tony Strickland, would be dueling in the 27th District, but Strickland then opted out to run for Congress and GOP leaders pinned their hopes on Smyth.

However, Smyth declared that he would return to private life when his third and last term in the Assembly ends this year, citing a desire to spend more time with his wife and three young children.

"I don't want to commit to another four years of missing so much of their lives," he said. "I never expected to spend my life chasing a government paycheck. I'm not afraid of life in the private sector."

Outcomes still matter in the other two tossups, the 5th District in the San Joaquin Valley and Southern California's 31st District.

Were Democrats to wind up with exactly 27 seats, it would make each Democratic senator a pivotal vote on major issues, thus empowering two or three moderates. But were Democrats to gain 28 or 29 seats, it would make the dominant liberals more powerful.